I suppose it really depends on the quality, as it were, of his friends. Despite the massive overall groupthink, the various fetish sub-sub-subcultures tend to react differently to these sorts of situations. Part of his fan base may rally behind him no matter what, some may cheer up to the point that he's convicted, and the rest will most likely, as you say, sweep it under the rug, if only to try to distance themselves (and their fandom) from this sort of thing.
Regardless, though, due to the whole groupthink thing, it seems most likely that whichever of the above groups is most vocal/populous will influence the general perception and reaction.